OTTUMWA —
While experts say there will be little relief from drought conditions until at least September, other forecasters are looking at a different part of the world for long-term outlooks.
And they say an El Niño is looking more and more likely.
El Niño is an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean's equatorial waters, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The warming of such a large body of water has impacts well beyond the immediate vicinity.
The phenomenon has a twin: La Niña. Colder than normal temperatures in the equatorial Pacific dominated until March. But over the past four weeks scientists say the ocean temperatures have been persistently above average. Not enough to declare an El Niño event, but enough to signal one is likely on the way.
El Niño generally creates a wetter weather pattern in the southern U.S. Residents of the gulf coast and eastern seaboard probably won't complain, either; an El Niño pattern disrupts the conditions needed for hurricanes in the Atlantic.
The effect is less pronounced in the Midwest. Online records in the Iowa State Climatologist's office indicate El Niño doesn't matter much when it comes to precipitation. In other words, it seems unlikely to kick Iowa out of the current drought.
This winter could be milder than usual. El Niño years typically see Iowa a bit above normal in the winter months, though there is no guarantee.
A formal designation of El Niño won't come for some time. NOAA says a full-fledged event requires temperatures to be above average by at least 0.5 degrees celsius for "at least five consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons." So scientists can't officially say El Niño has arrived until well after the start.
CNHI/Southeast Iowa
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